[Chidule] Mitengo ya thonje yapakhomo kapena ipitilira kukhala yotsika kwambiri. Nyengo yapamwamba pamsika wa nsalu ikuyandikira, koma kufunikira kwenikweni sikunawonekere, mwayi wamakampani opanga nsalu kuti atsegule ukutsikabe, ndipo mtengo wa thonje ukutsika. Pakalipano, kukula kwa thonje kwatsopano kuli bwino, kuwonjezeka kwapangidwe kukuyembekezeka kukhala kosasintha ndipo nthawi yolembera ikhoza kukhala kale kuposa chaka chatha. Nthawi yomweyo, msonkho wa thonje wochokera kunja uperekedwa posachedwa, ndipo kutsika kwamitengo ya thonje sikutsika.
I. Ndemanga yamtengo wa sabata ino
Kuyambira pa Ogasiti 12 mpaka 16, mtengo wapakati wokhazikika wa mgwirizano waukulu wam'tsogolo wa thonje wa Zhengzhou unali 13,480 yuan/tani, kutsika ndi 192 yuan/tani kuyambira sabata yapitayo, kutsika ndi 1.4%; Mlozera wamtengo wa thonje wa dziko lonse, womwe umayimira mtengo wamsika wa lint wamba kumtunda, pafupifupi 14,784 yuan/ton, kutsika ndi 290 yuan/ton kuchokera sabata yatha, kapena 1.9%. New York thonje wamtsogolo wothetsa mgwirizano wamtengo wapatali wa 67.7 cents/pounds, kukwera 0.03 cents/pounds kuchokera sabata yapitayi, makamaka yosalala; Mtengo wa avereji ya mlozera wa thonje wapadziko lonse (M) woimira mtengo wa thonje wotumizidwa kunja ku doko lalikulu la China unali 76.32 cents/paundi, kukwera 0.5 cents/paundi kuchokera sabata yapitayi, ndipo mtengo wogula kuchokera kunja kwa RMB 13,211 yuan/ton ( yowerengeredwa ndi 1% tarifi, osaphatikiza zinthu zina ndi katundu ku Hong Kong), kukwera ndi 88 yuan/tani kuchokera sabata yatha, chiwonjezeko cha 0.7%. Mtengo wa thonje wapakhomo ndi 1573 yuan/tani wokwera kuposa mtengo wa thonje wapadziko lonse lapansi, womwe ndi wocheperapo 378 yuan/tani kuposa sabata yapitayi. Mtengo wapakati wa C32S wamba wa thonje wamba ndi 21,758 yuan/ton, kutsika ndi 147 yuan/ton kuchokera sabata yatha. Mtengo wa ulusi wamba ndi 22222 yuan/ton, womwe ndi wofanana ndi sabata yapitayi. Mtengo wa polyester staple fiber ndi 7488 yuan/ton, kutsika 64 yuan/tani kuchokera sabata yapitayi.
Chachiwiri, mawonekedwe a msika wapafupi
(1) Msika wapadziko lonse lapansi
Zinthu zabwino zawoneka, mitengo ya thonje kapena idzakhazikika. Lipoti la dipatimenti ya zaulimi ku US la mu Ogasiti mu Ogasiti laneneratu kuti thonje la US litapanga matani 3.29 miliyoni mchaka cha 2024/25, kutsika ndi matani 410,000 kuchokera mwezi watha, makamaka chifukwa cha chilala chomwe chikukulirakulira posachedwa m'dera lomwe limalima thonje ku US. USDA Drought Monitor inanena kuti pafupifupi 22 peresenti ya madera opangira thonje amakhudzidwa ndi chilala kuyambira sabata ino, kuchokera pa 13 peresenti sabata yatha. Malinga ndi ziwerengero zochokera ku Unduna wa Zaulimi ku India, kuyambira pa Ogasiti 8, 2024/25 malo obzala thonje ku India anali mu 166 miliyoni, kutsika ndi 8.9% pachaka, ndipo akuyembekezeka kuchepa ndi matani 370,000 chaka chilichonse. chaka. Pakadali pano, zidziwitso za US Commerce department zidawonetsa kuti kugulitsa kwa US kutsika ndi 1 peresenti mu Julayi kuyambira mwezi watha, mlingo wapamwamba kwambiri kuyambira February 2023, zomwe zidapangitsa msika kukhala wopanda nkhawa ndi kugwa kwachuma ku US, kupereka chithandizo pakuwongolera bwino pamsika wazinthu. Malinga ndi lipoti la United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, kuyambira pa Ogasiti 6, malonda a thonje a ICE (opanga, ochita malonda, okonza) adakhala ndi 1156 kwa nthawi yoyamba kuyambira 2019, kutanthauza kuti ndalama zamakampani zimakhulupirira kuti thonje lapadziko lonse lapansi. mitengo kapena alowa mulingo wotsika mtengo. Kuphatikiza ndi zinthu zomwe zili pamwambazi, mitengo ya thonje yapadziko lonse ikuyembekezeka kukhazikika.
(2) Msika wapakhomo
Kufuna kwapansi sikunawone chiyambi, mitengo ya thonje inapitirizabe kusinthasintha pamlingo wochepa. Malinga ndi National Bureau of Statistics, malonda ogulitsa zovala, nsapato, zipewa ndi nsalu ku China mu July anali 93.6 biliyoni yuan, pansi 5.2% chaka ndi chaka; Deta ya kasitomu idawonetsa kuti ku China kugulitsa nsalu ndi zovala kunja kwa Julayi kunali madola 26.8 biliyoni aku US, kutsika ndi 0.5% chaka chilichonse. Kuyambira mu Ogasiti, msika wapakhomo wakhala ukuyembekezera nyengo yomwe ikubwera ya "golide naini siliva khumi", koma madongosolo sanawonetsebe kusintha. Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa dziko thonje msika polojekiti dongosolo, kumayambiriro August anali chitsanzo kafukufuku mabizinezi nsalu kutsegula Mwina 73.6%, kutsika ndi 0,8 peresenti mfundo mwezi watha, kokha munthu coarse ulusi mitundu kusonyeza zizindikiro zina za kutentha. kudzuka kwa msika kudakali kolemera, sabata ino mitengo ya thonje yapanyumba ikupitilira kutsika. Pakali pano, kukula kwa thonje kuli bwino, zikuyembekezeredwa kuti nthawi yolembera thonje ikhoza kukhala kale kuposa chaka chatha, ndipo msonkho wa thonje wolowa kunja watsala pang'ono kuperekedwa, zomwe zingapangitse kukakamizidwa kwina pamitengo ya thonje, ndi kuthekera kopitilira kugwedezeka kochepa ndikokulirapo.
Nthawi yotumiza: Aug-19-2024